Cynefin

The Cynefin framework is a tool for guiding decision-making in different types of situations. It provides a structured approach by categorizing problems into distinct domains: clear, complicated, complex, chaotic, and aporetic.

Domains

Each domain represents a different level of uncertainty and complexity and thus requires a different process for analyzing the available information and deciding on the best course of action.

Clear

Consider a situation in which you have to make a decision and you know exactly what the outcome of that decision will be. That’s the clear domain: all the information needed to make a decision is available to you. Therefore, to make a decision in the clear domain, you follow the sense-categorize-respond approach:

  1. Sense: Gather the relevant information.
  2. Categorize: Use the facts to identify applicable rules or best practices.
  3. Respond: Decide based on the chosen rule or best practice.

Overall, the clear domain is about the “known knowns”—you know what information you need to make a decision, and it is available to you.

Complicated

Now, assume you are considering a decision, but this time, you are unsure of its outcome. However, there is an expert who does know, and you can consult them. This is the complicated domain, and to make a decision in it, you follow the sense-analyze-respond approach:

  1. Sense: Gather the relevant information.
  2. Analyze: Identify the missing knowledge and consult a relevant expert.
  3. Respond: Follow the expert’s advice.

In complicated situations, you are facing “known unknowns”–you are aware of the information or knowledge required to make a decision, and you can consult an expert to obtain it.

Complex

Making a decision in the complex domain is more challenging: you don’t know what the outcome will be, and there is no expert to consult. The outcome can only be identified in retrospect–you have to commit an action and observe its results. Therefore, to make a decision in the complex domain, you follow the probe-sense-respond approach:

  1. Probe: Conduct safe experiments to observe the results of different decisions.
  2. Sense: Gather relevant information and identify patterns in actions and their outcomes.
  3. Respond: Make decisions based on the information and patterns discovered through experimentation.

In the complex domain, you are facing “unknown unknowns”–you lack the information needed to make a decision and are not even aware of what information you need.

Chaotic

In chaotic domains, you cannot identify the relationship between actions and their outcomes, even in retrospect. There is no clear connection–no patterns to recognize. Instead, outcomes seem to be random. Therefore, in this domain, you cannot make an informed decision. Instead, you must follow the act-sense-respond approach:

  1. Act: Take immediate action that makes sense and could potentially take you out of danger.
  2. Sense: Gather the information available as a result of the action.
  3. Respond: If still in danger, take another action that makes sense.

In chaotic domains, knowledge-based decisions are impossible because the missing information is “unknowable.” You must trust your instincts and take whatever action that makes sense and can help to regain control.

Aporetic

You are in the aporetic domain when you lack the information needed to categorize the decision-making context as clear, complicated, complex, or chaotic. As a result, you are not yet ready to make a decision or even plan the decision-making process. Instead, your priority is to gather information that can help to identify the domain you are in.

Domains are Subjective

Like complexity, Cynefin domains reflect not only the situation but also the individual making the decision. What is a complicated domain for one person is the clear domain for the relevant expert. The same applies to complex domains–another person might know what expertise is missing and how to acquire it, making the situation complicated rather than complex for them.

Ironically, one of the most dangerous situations to be in belongs to the clear domain. A person may be absolutely sure they are aware of the outcomes of an action–until the unexpected happens, often thrusting them straight into the chaotic domain. For example, a seemingly harmless change in a software system leading to a system-wide outage days or weeks after its deployment.

Cynefin and Balanced Coupling

The goal of the balanced coupling model is to guide the modular design of software systems. This requires managing the essential complexity of business domains while avoiding accidental complexity driven by system design. The Cynefin framework makes it clear and explicit what modular design should avoid: situations in which the outcome of a change can only be identified in retrospect–or cannot be identified at all.

Learn More